Decoding the forces shaping our future
This fourth edition report identifies 10 interconnected global megatrends (GMTs) that form complex polycrises, demanding systems-thinking approaches for effective navigation. Commissioned by Defra for research, the report meticulously details these transboundary forces, emphasizing their historical origins and profound influence on today’s policy landscape. Understanding these megatrends is paramount for developing resilient policies and sustainable strategies in a world characterized by converging global challenges.
Points clés
- The report identifies 10 global megatrends (GMTs) that are profoundly shaping the world, emphasizing their interconnected nature as polycrises.
- A megatrend is defined as a structural force impacting at least two continents, multiple systems/sectors/domains, with a clear direction of travel over at least a decade.
- The methodology involved comparative analysis of 24 global megatrend reports, leading to the shortlisting of 13 potential megatrends, which were then scrutinized by 44 international experts.
- “Increasingly Dynamic Geopolitics” originated with the First Industrial Revolution in 1760 CE, measured by indicators like Turchin’s Political Stress Indicator and The Global Peace Index.
- “Increase in Risks to Humanity” began with the Trinity atomic bomb test in 1945 CE, marking a shift where human-generated existential risks surpassed exogenous risks.
- “Accelerating Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change” originated in the 1830s due to changes in atmospheric chemistry driven by the Industrial Revolution.
- “Accelerating Environmental Degradation” began around 10,000 BCE with the transition to an agrarian society, measured by biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and pollution.
- “Increasing Resource Scarcity and Shifting Competitive Dynamics” originated in 800 BCE with increased resource demand from ancient civilizations.
- “Shifting Demographic Dynamics” began around 1870 with the intersection of decreasing mortality and declining birth rates, measured by median age, life expectancy, and birth rates.
- “Continued Pursuit of Economic Growth” originated with the First Industrial Revolution in 1760 CE, measured by the increase in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
À retenir
So, it seems we’re living in a world of “polycrises” and “megatrends” that have been brewing for centuries, if not millennia. Who knew that our ancient ancestors’ farming habits would lead to today’s environmental woes, or that a little thing like the Industrial Revolution would kick off centuries of geopolitical drama and an insatiable quest for economic growth? Apparently, everything is connected, and we’re all just trying to keep up. Perhaps a good first step is to invest in a time machine, go back to 10,000 BCE, and politely suggest they stick to hunting and gathering. Or, you know, just try to understand these trends and maybe, just maybe, make slightly less chaotic decisions going forward. Good luck with that!
Sources
Quiz sur le document: 10 questions
